UBER
Massive electric vehicle disruption to test investors
- Loup Ventures takes a crack at estimating the comprehensive disruption
toward electric, software and machine-driven and mobility-as-a-service in
the global transportation market.
- The firm thinks that EVs, which currently account for 3% of global new
vehicle sales, will gain popularity over the next decade to over 50% of
the
market.
- "We estimate the global market for new vehicles, including cars, light
trucks, commercial vehicles, and semis, is about $2.8T," update Gene
Munster and David Stokman. That figure is computed by adding up a 72% mix
of passenger cars at an average selling price of $25K, a 25% mix of
vans/buses at $34K ASP and a 3% mix of semis at a $125K ASP.
- Looking to the EV trucking future, Loup believes 100% of the
asset-light vertical is addressable by tech-native companies like Uber
(NYSE:UBER) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). The revenue opportunity in the
ride-hailing is estimated at $578B in the near term. Notably, autonomous
ride-hailing services are expected to make owning and operating a vehicle
more expensive for urban residents than subscribing to mobility services.
- Outsized opportunities are seen for Tesla, Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Rivian (
RIVN), along with traditional OEMs such as Volkswagen, (OTCPK:VLKAF),
Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) that successfully pivot their
vehicles and brands to electric. What about Cupertino? "While Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL) would not be the first mover in these segments of the
transportation market, they would have the cash and expertise around
hardware, software, and services to be a potential long-term winner,"
reasons Loup.
- Elsewhere on Wall Street, analysts have been making the point that the
ultimate list of winners in the EV industry is likely to much narrower
than
the tally of upstarts that includes Fisker (NYSE:FSR), Lordstown Motors
(NASDAQ:RIDE) and GreenPower Motors (NASDAQ:GP).
- While Tesla's Bitcoin foray and concerns over battery cells and chip
shortages have dominated the conversation in the auto industry over the
last week, Tesla's long-term ambitions in India could be the story of
the week.
|Today, 10:04 AM|126 Comments
Massive electric vehicle disruption to test investors
- Loup Ventures takes a crack at estimating the comprehensive disruption
toward electric, software and machine-driven and mobility-as-a-service in
the global transportation market.
- The firm thinks that EVs, which currently account for 3% of global new
vehicle sales, will gain popularity over the next decade to over 50% of
the
market.
- "We estimate the global market for new vehicles, including cars, light
trucks, commercial vehicles, and semis, is about $2.8T," update Gene
Munster and David Stokman. That figure is computed by adding up a 72% mix
of passenger cars at an average selling price of $25K, a 25% mix of
vans/buses at $34K ASP and a 3% mix of semis at a $125K ASP.
- Looking to the EV trucking future, Loup believes 100% of the
asset-light vertical is addressable by tech-native companies like Uber
(NYSE:UBER) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). The revenue opportunity in the
ride-hailing is estimated at $578B in the near term. Notably, autonomous
ride-hailing services are expected to make owning and operating a vehicle
more expensive for urban residents than subscribing to mobility services.
- Outsized opportunities are seen for Tesla, Nio (NYSE:NIO) and Rivian (
RIVN), along with traditional OEMs such as Volkswagen, (OTCPK:VLKAF),
Ford (NYSE:F) and General Motors (NYSE:GM) that successfully pivot their
vehicles and brands to electric. What about Cupertino? "While Apple
(NASDAQ:AAPL) would not be the first mover in these segments of the
transportation market, they would have the cash and expertise around
hardware, software, and services to be a potential long-term winner,"
reasons Loup.
- Elsewhere on Wall Street, analysts have been making the point that the
ultimate list of winners in the EV industry is likely to much narrower
than
the tally of upstarts that includes Fisker (NYSE:FSR), Lordstown Motors
(NASDAQ:RIDE) and GreenPower Motors (NASDAQ:GP).
- While Tesla's Bitcoin foray and concerns over battery cells and chip
shortages have dominated the conversation in the auto industry over the
last week, Tesla's long-term ambitions in India could be the story of
the week.
|Today, 10:04 AM|126 Comments
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