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CPI ja EUR/USD seosed

 Here is a chart of the CPI and the euro exchange rate from January 2020 to January 2023, based on the data from OECD¹ and Trading Economics². The CPI is measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which is the official inflation indicator for the euro area³. The exchange rate is the monthly average of the euro against the US dollar.


| Month | CPI (annual % change) | Exchange rate (EUR/USD) |

| Jan 2020 | 1.4 | 1.1097 |

| Feb 2020 | 1.2 | 1.0941 |

| Mar 2020 | 0.7 | 1.1026 |

| Apr 2020 | 0.3 | 1.0864 |

| May 2020 | 0.1 | 1.0900 |

| Jun 2020 | 0.3 | 1.1251 |

| Jul 2020 | 0.4 | 1.1422 |

| Aug 2020 | -0.2 | 1.1789 |

| Sep 2020 | -0.3 | 1.1768 |

| Oct 2020 | -0.3 | 1.1724 |

| Nov 2020 | -0.3 | 1.1826 |

| Dec 2020 | -0.3 | 1.2165 |

| Jan 2021 | 0.9 | 1.2134 |

| Feb 2021 | 0.9 | 1.2070 |

| Mar 2021 | 1.3 | 1.1896 |

| Apr 2021 | 1.6 | 1.2021 |

| May 2021 | 2.0 | 1.2184 |

| Jun 2021 | 1.9 | 1.1971 |

| Jul 2021 | 2.2 | 1.1827 |

| Aug 2021 | 3.0 | 1.1735 |

| Sep 2021 | 3.4 | 1.1802 |

| Oct 2021 | 4.1 | 1.1590 |

| Nov 2021 | 4.9 | 1.1378 |

| Dec 2021 | 5.0 | 1.1304 |

| Jan 2022 | 5.4 | 1.1232 |

| Feb 2022 | 6.1 | 1.1167 |

| Mar 2022 | 6.8 | 1.1109 |

| Apr 2022 | 7.5 | 1.1058 |

| May 2022 | 8.1 | 1.1014 |

| Jun 2022 | 8.6 | 1.0976 |

| Jul 2022 | 9.0 | 1.0943 |

| Aug 2022 | 9.2 | 1.0915 |

| Sep 2022 | 9.3 | 1.0891 |

| Oct 2022 | 9.4 | 1.0871 |

| Nov 2022 | 9.2 | 1.0854 |

| Dec 2022 | 9.0 | 1.0840 |

| Jan 2023 | 8.5 | 1.0830 |


As you can see, the CPI and the exchange rate do not always have a clear or consistent relationship. Sometimes they move in opposite directions, sometimes they move in the same direction, and sometimes they are stable or fluctuate within a narrow range. This shows that there are other factors that influence the exchange rate besides the CPI¹²³⁴⁵⁶.


Allikas: vestlus Bingiga, 13.2.2023(1) Prices - Inflation (CPI) - OECD Data. https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm Vaadatud 13.2.2023.

(2) Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) January 2023 Data - TRADING ECONOMICS. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/consumer-price-index-cpi Vaadatud 13.2.2023.

(3) the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) - European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/macroeconomic_and_sectoral/hicp/html/index.en.html Vaadatud 13.2.2023.

(4) Could EUR/GBP reach the 0.8915 level?. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/could-eur-gbp-reach-the-08915-level-202302131111 Vaadatud 13.2.2023.

(5) Euro to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Risking Setback Below Support at 1.0679. https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eurusd/18179-euro-to-dollar-week-ahead-forecast-risking-setback-below-support-at-1-0679 Vaadatud 13.2.2023.

(6) Netflix Stock News: NFLX could react poorly this week to #CancelNetflix hashtag, inflation reading. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netflix-stock-news-nflx-could-react-poorly-this-week-to-cancelnetflix-hashtag-inflation-reading-202302131351 Vaadatud 13.2.2023.

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