QS
Seeking Alpha Catalyst Watch
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch - a breakdown of some of next
week's actionable events that stand out. Check out Saturday morning's
regular Stocks to Watch article for a full list of events planned for the
week or the Seeking Alpha earnings calendar for companies due to report.
*Monday - December 28*
- *Volatility watch:* Stocks with a high level of implied volatility
heading into next week include EV high-flyer QuantumScape (NYSE:QS),
MicroVision (NASDAQ:MVIS) and FuboTV (NYSE:FUBO). Short interest on
Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) and Rackspace Technology (NASDAQ:RXT) is
tracking higher into the new year.
- *All week - * A slow week for data reports should still see the update
on Nevada gaming win for November arrive. The casino sector could get
rattled if the statewide and Las Vegas Strip numbers for the month worsen
from the level seen in October. MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) and Red Rock
Resorts (NASDAQ:RRR) are two casino stocks that have been jolted before
by the Nevada numbers.
- *All day -* The quiet period expires on Kinnate BioPharma
(NASDAQ:KNTE).
Shares of Kinnate have almost doubled from their pricing level of $20
even
with Wall Street mum on the cancer treatment stock.
- *All day -* The IPO share lockup expires on Dun & Bradstreet
(NYSE:DNB).
Shares of Dun & Bradstreet trade more than 20% higher than the IPO
pricing
level of $22.
- *FDA watch - * It is the last business day before the FDA action date
on Osmotica Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ:OSMT) refiled marketing application
seeking approval of arbaclofen extended-release tablets for the treatment
of spasticity in multiple sclerosis patients. Some traders think approval
is largely baked into OSMT's share price, leading to bigger risk on the
downside.
- *Futures watch - * Futures contracts that expire during the week
include the February contract for Brent crude oil and metals contracts
for
gold, copper, palladium, platinum and silver.
- *6:00 a.m. * Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) holds its earnings call from Beijing.
Of note, Weibo has topped consensus EPS marks in 11 of the last 12
quarters. Due to the pandemic, the company only issued revenue guidance
in
its last earnings release before outlining current trends during the
call,
which gave shares a push higher. Weibo hasn't traded over $50 since
January, but shares are in a slight uptrend heading into the report.
- *10:00 a.m. * RMG Acquisition Corp. (NYSE:RMG) is holding a virtual
stockholder meeting to approve the proposed transaction between RMG and
Romeo Systems. Holders of record of RMG common stock at the close of
business on December 1 will be entitled to vote at the virtual meeting to
approve the proposed transaction. Romeo will use the proceeds for
capacity
expansion and research & development to further develop battery system
technologies for commercial vehicles. RMG has soared ahead of the meeting
on expectations that it can ride the SPAC-EV wave to big returns in the
path of Fisker, Nikola and Lordstown Motors ahead of it. BorgWarner
(NYSE:BWA) has a piece of Romeo and could benefit from a splashy debut.
*Tuesday - December 29*
- *All day - * The IPO lockup period expires on Accolade (NASDAQ:ACCD)
and Lemonade (NYSE:LMND). Accolade has more than doubled in share price
since going public, but is still highly regarded on Wall Street at its
lofty valuation. The lock-up expiration on Lemonade adds about 30M more
shares to the public float. Lemonade is up more than 300% from where the
IPO was priced, which could tempt some profit-taking action.
- *All day - * The quiet period expires on Silverback Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:SBTX) and Sigilon Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SGTX) .
- *Index changes - * S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Kinsale Capital Group
(NASDAQ:KNSL) will replace Taubman Centers Inc. (NYSE:TCO) in the S&P
MidCap 400 and The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) (SMPL) will
replace Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) in the S&P SmallCap 600.
- *10:00 a.m.* Optec International (OTCPK:OPTI) will be hold its annual
shareholder call via Zoom. The company says the purpose of the call is to
provide a year-end update and answer pending questions to provide clarity
and future expectations to shareholders. Wild swings up and down are
pretty
typical for Optec due to its extremely low share price.
*Wednesday - December 30*
- *All day - * The lock-up period expires for a block of Beam
Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BEAM) shares. Beam has doubled in the last month on
strong investor enthusiasm over the company's intellectual property and
cutting edge technology.
- *All day - * Stocks with upcoming catalysts in the media sector
include Yelp (NYSE:YELP) as it adds heat maps and leads visualization
for advertisers and Discovery Communications (NASDAQ:DISCA) just ahead
of the launch of streaming service Discovery+. Advertising and promotions
on Discovery+ are ramping up for the service that will feature 55K
episodes
across more than 2.5K shows.
- *10:00 a.m.* Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) will hold a virtual special
shareholder meeting to allow shareholders vote on an amended merger
agreement with LVMH Moët Hennessy-Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMHF).
Shareholders of record as of the close of business November 30 will be
entitled to vote at the meeting. The company agreed to accept a lower
price
of $131.50 per share from LVMH in October after the deal nearly scuttled
by
the pandemic. The high percentage of arbitrage firms and hedge funds with
an interest in Tiffany is seen leading to shareholder approval and a deal
closing in the early part of 2021.
*Thursday - December 31*
- *All Day - * It is the last trading day before the expiration of an
IPO lockup for FuboTV (FUBO). The float of FUBO could nearly double on
January 4 in what has been called out by some traders as a likely
near-term
bearish event. Heading into the lockup date, Needham thinks the bear
thesis
is wrong. The firm says FUBO management owns 26% of the stock and it
expects no shares sold from this group in Q1. "The balance of the
un-locked-up shares come primarily from a convertible preferred owned by
DIS, AMC, CMCSA, DISCA, and VIAC. All are strategic owners of linear TV
assets, and owing FUBO adds to their exposure to streaming assets at a
time
when OTT businesses are being revalued upward and CTV advertising is
experiencing a strong upward acceleration. There isn't a better ROI on
cash
or a better strategic exposure for them than participating in a
sports-first OTT through their FUBO ownership, in our view. We believe
many
of them will choose not to sell in 1Q21," advises Needham. Due to the
high
trading volume on FUBO, Needham observes that even if 100% of the
unlocked
shares hit the market during Q1, the trading volume means it could absorb
the new shares without meaningful downside risk. Meanwhile, Lightshed
Partners calls FuboTV the most compelling short it has encountered with
the
idea of sports betting success called a pure fantasy.
*2021 playbook*
- Looking for some stock picks heading into the new year? Here are some
of the top picks highlighted by analysts recently.
- Morgan Stanley picks Activision Blizzard in gaming.
- UBS latches on to Nike.
- RBC Capital likes Walmart in retail.
- Mining picks from across Wall Street
- Barron's top stock selections for 2021.
- Broadcom a top JPMorgan name in semiconductors.
- 8x8 a top 2021 election bet at Needham.
- Wells Fargo taps Micron for big 2021 gains.
- Chipotle a best idea for 2021 pick at Cowen.
- Disney, Hilton and Vale make BofA's list of top stocks for 2021.
- Constellation Brands called a standout in beverages by UBS.
- Twitter a favorite Internet stock for 2021 at JPMorgan.
- Top E&P picks at Wells Fargo.
- Zoom Video a top 2021 pick by D.A. Davidson.
- Morgan Stanley names its top consumer staples stocks.
- Bank of America sees two P&C insurer standouts against a rocky backdrop
.
- Oppenheimer selects its top cloud and communications stocks.
|Today, 1:15 PM
Seeking Alpha Catalyst Watch
Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Catalyst Watch - a breakdown of some of next
week's actionable events that stand out. Check out Saturday morning's
regular Stocks to Watch article for a full list of events planned for the
week or the Seeking Alpha earnings calendar for companies due to report.
*Monday - December 28*
- *Volatility watch:* Stocks with a high level of implied volatility
heading into next week include EV high-flyer QuantumScape (NYSE:QS),
MicroVision (NASDAQ:MVIS) and FuboTV (NYSE:FUBO). Short interest on
Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) and Rackspace Technology (NASDAQ:RXT) is
tracking higher into the new year.
- *All week - * A slow week for data reports should still see the update
on Nevada gaming win for November arrive. The casino sector could get
rattled if the statewide and Las Vegas Strip numbers for the month worsen
from the level seen in October. MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) and Red Rock
Resorts (NASDAQ:RRR) are two casino stocks that have been jolted before
by the Nevada numbers.
- *All day -* The quiet period expires on Kinnate BioPharma
(NASDAQ:KNTE).
Shares of Kinnate have almost doubled from their pricing level of $20
even
with Wall Street mum on the cancer treatment stock.
- *All day -* The IPO share lockup expires on Dun & Bradstreet
(NYSE:DNB).
Shares of Dun & Bradstreet trade more than 20% higher than the IPO
pricing
level of $22.
- *FDA watch - * It is the last business day before the FDA action date
on Osmotica Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ:OSMT) refiled marketing application
seeking approval of arbaclofen extended-release tablets for the treatment
of spasticity in multiple sclerosis patients. Some traders think approval
is largely baked into OSMT's share price, leading to bigger risk on the
downside.
- *Futures watch - * Futures contracts that expire during the week
include the February contract for Brent crude oil and metals contracts
for
gold, copper, palladium, platinum and silver.
- *6:00 a.m. * Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) holds its earnings call from Beijing.
Of note, Weibo has topped consensus EPS marks in 11 of the last 12
quarters. Due to the pandemic, the company only issued revenue guidance
in
its last earnings release before outlining current trends during the
call,
which gave shares a push higher. Weibo hasn't traded over $50 since
January, but shares are in a slight uptrend heading into the report.
- *10:00 a.m. * RMG Acquisition Corp. (NYSE:RMG) is holding a virtual
stockholder meeting to approve the proposed transaction between RMG and
Romeo Systems. Holders of record of RMG common stock at the close of
business on December 1 will be entitled to vote at the virtual meeting to
approve the proposed transaction. Romeo will use the proceeds for
capacity
expansion and research & development to further develop battery system
technologies for commercial vehicles. RMG has soared ahead of the meeting
on expectations that it can ride the SPAC-EV wave to big returns in the
path of Fisker, Nikola and Lordstown Motors ahead of it. BorgWarner
(NYSE:BWA) has a piece of Romeo and could benefit from a splashy debut.
*Tuesday - December 29*
- *All day - * The IPO lockup period expires on Accolade (NASDAQ:ACCD)
and Lemonade (NYSE:LMND). Accolade has more than doubled in share price
since going public, but is still highly regarded on Wall Street at its
lofty valuation. The lock-up expiration on Lemonade adds about 30M more
shares to the public float. Lemonade is up more than 300% from where the
IPO was priced, which could tempt some profit-taking action.
- *All day - * The quiet period expires on Silverback Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:SBTX) and Sigilon Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SGTX) .
- *Index changes - * S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Kinsale Capital Group
(NASDAQ:KNSL) will replace Taubman Centers Inc. (NYSE:TCO) in the S&P
MidCap 400 and The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) (SMPL) will
replace Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) in the S&P SmallCap 600.
- *10:00 a.m.* Optec International (OTCPK:OPTI) will be hold its annual
shareholder call via Zoom. The company says the purpose of the call is to
provide a year-end update and answer pending questions to provide clarity
and future expectations to shareholders. Wild swings up and down are
pretty
typical for Optec due to its extremely low share price.
*Wednesday - December 30*
- *All day - * The lock-up period expires for a block of Beam
Therapeutics (NASDAQ:BEAM) shares. Beam has doubled in the last month on
strong investor enthusiasm over the company's intellectual property and
cutting edge technology.
- *All day - * Stocks with upcoming catalysts in the media sector
include Yelp (NYSE:YELP) as it adds heat maps and leads visualization
for advertisers and Discovery Communications (NASDAQ:DISCA) just ahead
of the launch of streaming service Discovery+. Advertising and promotions
on Discovery+ are ramping up for the service that will feature 55K
episodes
across more than 2.5K shows.
- *10:00 a.m.* Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) will hold a virtual special
shareholder meeting to allow shareholders vote on an amended merger
agreement with LVMH Moët Hennessy-Louis Vuitton (OTCPK:LVMHF).
Shareholders of record as of the close of business November 30 will be
entitled to vote at the meeting. The company agreed to accept a lower
price
of $131.50 per share from LVMH in October after the deal nearly scuttled
by
the pandemic. The high percentage of arbitrage firms and hedge funds with
an interest in Tiffany is seen leading to shareholder approval and a deal
closing in the early part of 2021.
*Thursday - December 31*
- *All Day - * It is the last trading day before the expiration of an
IPO lockup for FuboTV (FUBO). The float of FUBO could nearly double on
January 4 in what has been called out by some traders as a likely
near-term
bearish event. Heading into the lockup date, Needham thinks the bear
thesis
is wrong. The firm says FUBO management owns 26% of the stock and it
expects no shares sold from this group in Q1. "The balance of the
un-locked-up shares come primarily from a convertible preferred owned by
DIS, AMC, CMCSA, DISCA, and VIAC. All are strategic owners of linear TV
assets, and owing FUBO adds to their exposure to streaming assets at a
time
when OTT businesses are being revalued upward and CTV advertising is
experiencing a strong upward acceleration. There isn't a better ROI on
cash
or a better strategic exposure for them than participating in a
sports-first OTT through their FUBO ownership, in our view. We believe
many
of them will choose not to sell in 1Q21," advises Needham. Due to the
high
trading volume on FUBO, Needham observes that even if 100% of the
unlocked
shares hit the market during Q1, the trading volume means it could absorb
the new shares without meaningful downside risk. Meanwhile, Lightshed
Partners calls FuboTV the most compelling short it has encountered with
the
idea of sports betting success called a pure fantasy.
*2021 playbook*
- Looking for some stock picks heading into the new year? Here are some
of the top picks highlighted by analysts recently.
- Morgan Stanley picks Activision Blizzard in gaming.
- UBS latches on to Nike.
- RBC Capital likes Walmart in retail.
- Mining picks from across Wall Street
- Barron's top stock selections for 2021.
- Broadcom a top JPMorgan name in semiconductors.
- 8x8 a top 2021 election bet at Needham.
- Wells Fargo taps Micron for big 2021 gains.
- Chipotle a best idea for 2021 pick at Cowen.
- Disney, Hilton and Vale make BofA's list of top stocks for 2021.
- Constellation Brands called a standout in beverages by UBS.
- Twitter a favorite Internet stock for 2021 at JPMorgan.
- Top E&P picks at Wells Fargo.
- Zoom Video a top 2021 pick by D.A. Davidson.
- Morgan Stanley names its top consumer staples stocks.
- Bank of America sees two P&C insurer standouts against a rocky backdrop
.
- Oppenheimer selects its top cloud and communications stocks.
|Today, 1:15 PM
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