Stocks at highs ahead of December jobs report
- The upbeat mood on Wall Street is likely to outshine any weak job
numbers seen today as equities continue to tack on record highs. A huge
negative miss in the ADP's private payrolls figure already seen Wednesday
did little to impact market sentiment as traders bet a new
Democratic-controlled government would lead to robust fiscal stimulus to
support the country's economic recovery. Futures also marched higher
overnight, advancing another 0.3%, after a stellar session on Thursday.
- *Forecasts:* Consensus estimates see 75,000 jobs added last month,
less than a third of November's gains, as the coronavirus spread rapidly
across the U.S. A number of Wall Street firms even see negative job
growth,
with predictions from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Barclays
ranging from a loss of 25,000 to 50,000 positions.
- *Quote: *"I think it's 50/50 whether it's going to be up 50,000 or
down 50,000. We're kind of on the knife's edge between creating
additional
jobs and the recovery falling back a step," added Chris Rupkey, chief
financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "Nobody is going to be rushing to
hire back more people at this stage, and certainly for leisure and
hospitality. There's a risk jobs fall further in next month's report
because of further lockdowns."
- Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to
6.8% in December from 6.7% in the previous month, while average hourly
earnings are seen falling 0.2% (from 0.3% in November). For the entire
2020, average hourly earnings are anticipated to remain stable at 4.4%.
- Before today's nonfarm-payrolls release at 8:30 a.m., check out the
full
report from November.
|Today, 6:04 AM|35 Comments
- The upbeat mood on Wall Street is likely to outshine any weak job
numbers seen today as equities continue to tack on record highs. A huge
negative miss in the ADP's private payrolls figure already seen Wednesday
did little to impact market sentiment as traders bet a new
Democratic-controlled government would lead to robust fiscal stimulus to
support the country's economic recovery. Futures also marched higher
overnight, advancing another 0.3%, after a stellar session on Thursday.
- *Forecasts:* Consensus estimates see 75,000 jobs added last month,
less than a third of November's gains, as the coronavirus spread rapidly
across the U.S. A number of Wall Street firms even see negative job
growth,
with predictions from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Barclays
ranging from a loss of 25,000 to 50,000 positions.
- *Quote: *"I think it's 50/50 whether it's going to be up 50,000 or
down 50,000. We're kind of on the knife's edge between creating
additional
jobs and the recovery falling back a step," added Chris Rupkey, chief
financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "Nobody is going to be rushing to
hire back more people at this stage, and certainly for leisure and
hospitality. There's a risk jobs fall further in next month's report
because of further lockdowns."
- Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to
6.8% in December from 6.7% in the previous month, while average hourly
earnings are seen falling 0.2% (from 0.3% in November). For the entire
2020, average hourly earnings are anticipated to remain stable at 4.4%.
- Before today's nonfarm-payrolls release at 8:30 a.m., check out the
full
report from November.
|Today, 6:04 AM|35 Comments
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