3/11/2016

The real reason for the oil price rise revealed, mission completed, WTI @ $45

Mission completed!!!

EUR/RUB have room to another move.

One more push and we are done! Dont give up!

On February 10, the most influential man in the world (or at least at the top three) said, thats it! I want the price of oil would be $45, and the EUR / RUB exchange rate back to 60 by the May 1-st. Working people need a gift!

Technically, it is not too difficult to do. The current price level and sentiment helping a lot.
What is needed is money, commitment and the best traders.
In many cases, buy at low liquidity period price up 0.8-1.2% and the rest of the work will be done by stop orders and short covering, which activate each other. At the time of panic buying , you sell all or part of the previously purchased the contracts. On the day when the operation is on hold, the price will fall, and at the time of panic selling start quietly buy again.




At the same time, sufficiently prominent speeches and press releases needed to support price movement. It remains to be hoped that price is not going back to fundamentals (fundamentals always win (such as Silver Thursday)), and no one lobbying too much for.

Fortunately, there is a powerful emotion on the market. So far operation have performed better than expected. Goldman and Citi with sub $20´s px tgt have to sit and watch.

Spot the similarity















3/10/2016

ZAR $Gold production up 27% in Jan YoY, nice!

ZAR $Gold production up 27% in Jan YoY vs -3.1% expected.

So, quess hat will be next overbought loser, copper, iron ore or crude oil.

Crude oil rally running out of steam

After being below the five-year range in September 2014, inventories have gradually pushed higher over the last 18 months to now finally clamber above this range. Distillate stocks reached a record of 186 million barrels in December 1982 (think: E.T., Tootsie #1 at the movies). Inventories generally bottom out each year at the end of winter (after peak demand), building through the summer as refineries go full-tilt to meet higher gasoline demand for summer driving season. Should we see a similar build to inventories as we saw last year, we should well be testing record inventory levels in the fall.


Unexpected moves

Stocks did nothing in the US on Wednesday while the big stories of the day came from central banks as the Bank of Canada kept rates on hold and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates unexpectedly.
This is a bit worring chart:

Nothing but short squeeze

Oil Continues To Rally As Short-Covering Continues



No intention for oil production freeze

Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut

In the geopolitical and oligopolistic global oil market, purely financial supply and demand has often been a secondary force, acting when it is allowed to act. It is the strategic behavior of the producing titans, not their talk or the slow-motion supply-demand balance, which has the real power to move markets. That is the case in the last two years and remains the case in 2016.
The behavior of Saudi Arabia since 2014 has demonstrated the intent to increase both capacity and supply, a pattern not yet mitigated despite a distracting news feed from OPEC and the kingdom.


Inflation heading up, fast

Shares in Asia mixed with Shanghai down after higher than seen CPI
Investing.com - Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday with Shanghai down afterconsumer inflation ticked higher than expected, throwing into doubt the scope for further easing.
Consumer prices in China rose at a faster pace than expected in February, setting the stage for a tighter corridor to ease monetary policy in the face of slowing growth.
In China CPI for February rose 1.6%, above the gain of 1.1% expected month-on-month for a year-on-year pace of 2.3%, well above the 1.9% seen.
That sent the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.20% to 2,828.06, while Hong Kong'sHang Seng Index was up 0.60% to
20,116.10.

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