Showing posts from 2016

Year 2016

Option premiums sold $136K.
Profit took $55K.
Open 235 trades, closed 213 trades with 87.3% winning rate.
Average trade duration 16 days.
Mayor losses came from bonds ($ZB_F), actually underestimated both, bond rally and plunge later in the year. Totally missed Trump´s rally. Biggest profits came from oil ($CL_F)
More detailed and real time portfolio metrics here.



Drones, satellite innovations put ag markets 'on brink of' data revolution

Wed 30th November 2016Drones, satellite innovations put ag markets 'on brink of' data revolution Agriculture markets are, thanks to innovations such as drones, "on the brink" of an information revolution which could help fill the information gap notable in regions such as the Black Sea, and markets such as coffee.Olivier Raevel, head of commodities at exchange operator Euronext, told the AgriRisk Forum that developments in satellite technology were already transforming the availability of data for energy investors.Such information can, for example, give an indication of oil inventories allowing investors buying it to position ahead of benchmark monthly reports from the International Energy Agency.www.agrimoney.comRead the full article here: THIS EMAIL You have received this email because you have subscribed at | Edit subscri…

Evening round-up

Tues 29th November 2016Evening round-upFunds tire of soybean futures amid commodity sell-off
Fears that Opec negotiations are stalling triggers a rash of profit taking in commodities, ending a seven-session bull run

Hedge funds favour grains to soft commodities - but will it last?
Hedge funds turn more bearish on softs - except cotton - while swinging bullish grains. But has this left the likes of corn vulnerable to selling?

EU wheat exports to bounce next season, says Strategie Grains
Recovering production within the bloc, and lower competition from the Black Sea and the US, will support exports, the analysis group says

On-farm storage reduces harvest pressure in Black Sea
Increased Asi…

Hedge funds favour grains to soft commodities - but will it last?

Tues 29th November 2016Hedge funds favour grains to soft commodities - but will it last?Hedge funds, despite lifting bullish bets on cotton to a three-year, favoured grains to soft commodities – so much so that many investors saw scope for fresh selling in the likes of corn.Managed money, a proxy for speculators, lifted its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from corn to sugar, by 55,896 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, analysis of data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator shows.The rise in the net long - the extent to which long bets, which profit when values rise, exceed short holdings, which benefit when prices fall – reflected improved sentiment towards grains and livestock contracts.www.agrimoney.comRead the full article here: THIS EMAIL You have received this email because you have subscrib…

Mounting hedge fund interest to boost ag market volatility ahead

Tues 29th November 2016Mounting hedge fund interest to boost ag market volatility aheadVolatility lies ahead for agricultural commodity markets thanks to the growing influence of speculators - with the prospect of a stronger dollar and weaker oil also fuelling price moves, Commerzbank said.One impact of the recovering inflation expectations, which are spurring ideas for US interest rate rises ahead, will be to increase the appeal to speculators of commodities, which might see their own values rise."Managed money will be looking for yield," seeking to boost returns and keep ahead inflation, Eugen Weinberg, head of communications at Commerzbank, told's AgriRisk Forum in London.www.agrimoney.comRead the full article here: THIS EMAIL You have received this email because you have subscribed at | Edit subscription | Commodities

RUS2K, just run as far as you can


CFTC Copper speculative net positions @46.3K



Check out this chart from for $WTIC:SPY


Check out this chart from for SPY:TLT

CFTC Copper speculative net positions

CFTC Copper speculative net positions

Waiting for bounce $TLT

Check out this chart from for TLT

Copper $HG_F16

Check out this chart from for ^HGF16

Is it allready shorting time? $SPY

Check out this chart from for SPY

Billionaire trader says “half the U.S. energy industry will be bankrupt in 6 months”

The End of Big Oil Is Here... Billionaire trader says "half the U.S. energy
industry will be bankrupt in 6 months"

Dear Reader,

At this moment, oil is caught in an absolute death spiral.

And a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping oil stocks at an alarming clip...

This mass exodus comes alongside oil's fall to an 11-year low, dipping below $35 per barrel for the first time since 2004, even lower than the 2008 financial crisis.

This situation is so severe that legendary billionaire energy investor John Arnold says "half the U.S. energy industry will be bankrupt in 6 months."

Warren Buffett dumped his entire Exxon position worth over $3.8 billion.

Bill Gates unloaded nearly $1 billion worth of oil stocks.

And George Soros couldn't get out of oil fast enough, selling off multiple positions...

Pundits would have you believe a temporary "global supply glut" is to blame.

They couldn't be more wrong...

The real reason is much more ominous and could push oi…

CFTC Copper speculative net positions to record long 45K contracts

At the same time...

How To Sell Long Term Options

There are various ways to sell options this environment, but my preferred method is to sell deep out of the money options (calls and/or puts), collect the premium, and then let options melt down toward zero. Read more

The 5 largest companies in the stock market

The 5 largest companies in the stock market right now are all in tech. The current rankings look like this:
Apple $608 billion market cap
Google $550 billion market cap
Microsoft $450 billion market cap
Amazon $393 billion market cap
Facebook $367 billion market cap

WTI Crude Oil Futures Seasonality


Profit taking Friday


This is good-one: “Gold will plummet to $750… real-estate will drop another 30%... and the DOW will plunge to 6,000.”

Dear Reader, 
If you watch CNBC, it’s likely you’ve seen this man.  
He’s the economist who recently said, “Gold will plummet to $750… real-estate will drop another 30%... andthe DOW will plunge to 6,000.”  
He even had the audacity to tell CNBC contributor Ron Insana, “You and Robert Malthus don’t know what you’re talking about!” 
When I heard this, I wondered, “Who the heck does this guy think he is?” 
Then I took a look at his track record...  
Harry Dent has predicted nearly every major economic trend over the past 30 years…including the 1991 recession, Japan’s lost decade, the 2001 tech crash, the bull market and housing boom of the last decade and, most recently, the credit and housing bubble.
And I’m thrilled he’s letting us share his latest research with Stocks & Commodities readers. I must warn you, I was shocked when I heard what he's forecasting for the coming months.
The scary thing is, much of what he predicts is already starting to happen.
But you can see it for yourself 

Bank of England


Undeniable facts


S&P 500 Seasonality


What is it - $SPY


Futures momentum



The Big Picture ... Market PerspectivesBy Bryan Rich September 8, 2016, 2:00pm ESTThe ECB met this morning.  As expected Draghi and company sat tight.  The big events of the month are in two weeks, when the Fed and BOJ decide on rates/monetary policy.

Today let's take a look at the total assets that have been hoovered up by the world's biggest central banks, an activity that the central banks thought would lead to growth, and the gold-bugs thought would lead to hyper-inflation.  They've both been underwhelmed.   

The Fed's balance sheet has grown to almost $4.5 trillion ...

The ECB's balance sheet is at $3.7 trillion and growing ...

The BOJ's has rocketed to $4.4 trillion and growing ...

And China, the stealth QE'er has ballooned to $5.1 trillion ...

That's nearly $18 trillion of assets on the balance sheet of the world's top central banks.  That means much of that $18 trillion of capital has been injected into the system.  It was widely believed that thi…

European 10-year bond yields up after #ECB decision


Interest rates by country


Current inflation by country / region (CPI)


Hedge funds flee tumbling cattle market - but not fast enough


Big Picture ... Market Perspectives 9/1/16

The Big Picture ... Market PerspectivesBy Bryan Rich September 1, 2016, 2:00pm ESTLast month, this time, the famed oil trader Andy Hall (and oil bull) was dealing with a sub $40 oil market again.  And he was again explaining losses to investors in his multi-billion hedge fund.

A guy that has made a career, and hundreds of millions of dollar in personal wealth, picking tops and bottoms in oil, had had entered 2016 coming off his worst year ever.  And 2016 started even worse.  

I've talked about the oil price bust extensively, at the depths of the decline in January and February.  While most were glorifying the benefits of a few extra bucks on the pockets of consumers from low gas prices, we walked through the ugly outcome of persistently low oil prices.  It would be another global financial crisis, as failing energy companies and defaulting oil producing countries would lead to crush banks and the dominos would fall from there.  Unfortunately, the central banks don't have the amm…

Coffee futures staged a strong start to September

Coffee futures jump, as export tumble fuels supply fears Coffee futures staged a strong start to September, attempting in New York to record their second highest close in more than a year, as data showing a slump in world exports crystallised concerns of tighter supplies. Arabica coffee futures for December stood up 3.8% at 153.65 cents a pound in late deals in New York, a level which, if held to the close, would represent the strong finish for the contract, bar one, since May last year. In London, the best-traded November robusta coffee futures contract stood 1.4% higher at $1,854 in late deals. 'Bullish as anything'

Pyramus Compound

“The Pyramus Compound: Profiting From This $256.5 Billion Cash Grab,” 
If not total fiction then check companies like MEO1V, UPM1V, UFS, TVIA former SZYM, POL UPM has a nice concept car, BIOFORE

#Sugar price rally not over yet, says ISO, flagging 'critically low' stocks

Tues 30th August 2016Sugar price rally not over yet, says ISO, flagging 'critically low' stocksThe rally in sugar prices, already close to four-year highs, has further to run, spurred by the fall in world inventories to "critically low" levels, the International Sugar Organization said, despite foreseeing a rise in output.The intergovernmental group, in its first forecast for the world sugar production deficit in 2016-17, pegged it at 7.05m tonnes, one of the highest shortfalls on record.Following on from a 5.74m-tonne deficit in 2015-16, on an October-to-September basis, the shortfall leaves the world looking at a tumble in stocks below 75m tonnes by the end of next season.www.agrimoney.comRead the full article here:

Traders are tired for buying protection (puts) $VIX $OVX

Except maybe in soft commodities like corn, wheat and soybean.

EU #milk output surge 'over', boding well for prices

Thurs 25th August 2016EU milk output surge 'over', boding well for pricesThe surge in European Union milk production, blamed by many commentators for the extent of the world milk price downturn, is over, said Fonterra and Rabobank, which flagged support for values from Chinese dryness too."Milk production in the EU is now in decline," said John Wilson, the chairman of New Zealand-based Fonterra, the world's top milk exporter, which monitors closely the global industry.Rabobank estimated that milk output in the EU, the top producer, had fallen by 1.5% in June, a month for which official data are due imminently.The European Commission's latest data, for May, show a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in output, the slowest since the removal at the end of March 2015 of production quotas, which sent volumes soaring.www.agrimoney.comRead the full article here:
Volatility And The Bond Bull Market For the full story:

S&P 500


Commodity Futures Forecasts: August 15, 2016 – August 19, 2016


Corn $ZC_F

CornCorn futures are trading mostly 3 cents higher this morning. Prices closed higher on Friday despite USDA projecting US average yield at 175.1 bpa and a record crop at 15.153 billion bushels. Ears per acre in the objective yield plots were only the 4th highest on record, but USDA used a new all-time high for grain weight per ear. The projected new crop ending stocks are now 2.409 billion for 2016/17. World ending stocks rose because of the hike in the US, to a projected 220.81 MMT from 208.4 MMT last month. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding another 32,645 contracts to their net short position during the week ending Tuesday, August 9.

Can´t wait shortcovering rally :-)

Alarming Amount of Americans Going Hungry

It started with GMO crops in 1994, which are now found in every grocery store we visit - some may be on your table right now. Then it moved to burger patties produced at a laboratory in London inside of a petri dish; and now, insect farming for human consumption, namely crickets which have been used in tacos, flour, cookies and their own form of bite size snacks in a bag... It might sound gross today, but fake meat, and insects will be commonplace in our food system within 10-15 years. Fact is, we are headed toward a global crisis if we don't find alternative food sources; and unless we are okay with widespread social unrest across the world (including here in the West), we need food alternatives such as the ones just mentioned...

Nearly 15% of America can't afford enough food for basic nourishment... Even middle-income Americans borrow money on occasion to put food on the table, according to Market Watch.

An estimated half of Venezuelans aren't getting the food they need t…